New Estimates Show Stay-At-Home Orders Prevented 2.1 Million Hospitalizations and Over 200,000 Deaths in 30 Major U.S. Cities

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: May 7, 2020             

8 IN 10 AMERICANS BELIEVE CORONAVIRUS ORDERS HAVE KEPT THEIR COMMUNITIES HEALTHIER AND SAFER

WASHINGTON, D.C.—Today, May 7, 2020, the Big Cities Health Coalition (BCHC) released estimates that show that early actions by BCHC members, leaders from America’s largest metropolitan health departments, to get the public to stay home led to an estimated 2.1 million hospitalizations avoided and over 200,000 lives saved. These estimates, based on 45-day shelter-in-place/stay-at-home orders, were calculated by the Urban Health Collaborative at Drexel University’s Dornsife School of Public Health using a model published by The New York Times.

“Ordering people to shelter in their homes was unprecedented and difficult. Everyone’s collective action has dramatically slowed the spread of COVID-19,” said Dr. Sara Cody, health officer for the County of Santa Clara and chair of the Big Cities Health Coalition. “These measures have prevented many infections, hospitalizations and deaths. It’s tempting to let up, but we need to massively scale up two essential guardrails–testing and contact tracing–to protect the progress we’ve made, as well as the most vulnerable among us.”

Additionally, a survey conducted in April by NP Strategy Group found that Americans in all regions of the country understand the impact of stay-at-home orders in place across the nation. It found that, on average, 4 out of 5 (80%) respondents agree that stay-at-home orders helped keep them and their communities healthier and safer during the pandemic, with agreement across age, gender, political and regional breakouts. At the same time, 75% approve of the actions taken by their local public health leaders, and 68% approve of their elected officials’ decisions. Additional poll results are available at https://www.bigcitieshealth.org/stayhomeimpact/.

“While we as a country have lost far too many to COVID-19, stay-at-home orders across the nation have made a real difference in the number of hospitalizations and deaths,” said Chrissie Juliano, MPP, executive director, Big Cities Health Coalition. “Importantly, this poll confirms that there is strong public support for these actions and for local health officials who continue to use science and data in their decision-making processes. This is the job of public health, and as we move into whatever the next phase of this pandemic brings, it is critically important that we continue to increase testing capacity and contact tracing, as well as ensure resources flow into communities to support response and recovery activities.”

The Urban Health Collaborative at Drexel University’s Dornsife School of Public Health calculated estimates for lives saved and hospitalizations avoided for BCHC member jurisdictions using a model published by The New York Times. See the breakdown by jurisdiction and read additional information on methodology can be found at https://www.bigcitieshealth.org/stayhomeimpact/

BCHC Member City          (Jurisdiction Used in Modeling)	EstimatedHospitalizations Avoided	EstimatedLives Saved
Days of Stay at Home Order
After 30 Days	After 45 Days	After 60 Days	After 30 Days	After 45 Days	After 60 Days
Austin (Travis County)	32,171	45,898	54,908	3,382	4,988	5,741
Baltimore City	15,149	21,382	24,985	1,588	2,287	2,589
Boston	12,523	19,670	29,242	1,310	2,032	3,030
Charlotte (Mecklenburg County)	28,108	40,005	47,453	2,952	4,320	4,946
Chicago	68,254	97,575	117,206	7,187	10,635	12,269
Cleveland	9,692	13,828	16,542	1,019	1,503	1,730
Columbus (Franklin County)	33,253	47,441	56,753	3,496	5,155	5,934
Dallas County	66,556	94,954	113,593	6,997	10,318	11,876
Denver	18,365	26,201	31,256	1,931	2,842	3,266
Detroit	16,987	24,236	28,993	1,745	2,634	3,031
Fort Worth (Tarrant County)	53,096	75,751	90,365	5,583	8,215	9,441
Houston	58,727	83,784	99,948	6,175	9,086	10,443
Indianapolis (Marion County)	24,388	34,752	41,340	2,562	3,761	4,314
Kansas City	12,423	17,723	21,143	1,306	1,922	2,209
Las Vegas (Clark County)	58,205	81,666	94,463	6,097	8,682	9,752
Long Beach	11,873	16,838	19,831	1,246	1,811	2,062
Los Angeles County	253,522	362,610	436,656	26,702	39,613	45,762
Miami-Dade County	68,777	97,888	116,113	7,224	10,572	12,103
Minneapolis	10,782	15,327	18,116	1,132	1,652	1,886
New York City	141,958	226,728	288,724	15,188	24,062	30,876
Oakland (Alameda County)	42,664	60,216	70,364	4,473	6,441	7,291
Philadelphia	40,003	57,072	68,275	4,206	6,202	7,138
Phoenix (Maricopa County)	114,769	161,603	187,879	12,032	17,263	19,437
Portland (Multnomah County)	20,527	29,286	35,034	2,159	3,183	3,663
San Antonio (Bexar County)	52,932	75,426	89,723	5,562	8,163	9,364
San Diego County	84,304	120,579	145,202	8,879	13,172	15,217
San Francisco	22,503	31,761	37,112	2,359	3,397	3,845
San Jose (Santa Clara County)	49,212	69,453	81,161	5,159	7,429	8,409
Seattle-King County	56,891	81,165	97,097	5,981	8,819	10,151
Washington, D.C.	18,015	25,427	29,711	1,888	2,719	3,078
Total BCHC Member Jurisdictions	1,496,629	2,156,245	2,589,188	157,520	232,878	270,853

CONTACT: Max Mays mays@bigcitieshealth.org or 913-233-6830 

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About the Big Cities Health Coalition

The Big Cities Health Coalition (BCHC) is a forum for the leaders of America’s largest metropolitan health departments to exchange strategies and jointly address issues to promote and protect the health and safety of their residents. Collectively, BCHC member jurisdictions directly impact nearly 62 million people, or one in five Americans. For more information, visit https://www.bigcitieshealth.org.